Election Day predictions

The French word for sea is MER + COW + SKI = Murkowski.




I predict that, no matter what the outcome of the election:

members of the Republican Party will claim that the vote was the rejection “by the American people” of “the failed policies of the Obama/Pelosi/Reid” cabal.
the Democrats will talk about opportunities for bipartisanship.
*some bills that should have passed between January 2009 and October 2010, will get passed in November 2010, without much, or any Republican support, which will lead the Republicans to complain that the Democrats “rammed” the bill “down the throat of the American people”

As for the vote today, I can’t make predictions. My gut says the Democrat will win the Senate race in Colorado, but lose in Illinois. Do you want predictions? Go to fivethirtyeight.com.

But I will go out on a limb to say that I think Lisa Murkowski will barely retain her Senate seat in Alaska. Three-way polling is much less reliable than that done for a two-person race. Good news: her name will appear on a list of potential write-in candidates. Bad news: there are about 100 people on the list. Good news: she has great name recognition in the state. Bad news: she’s been around a long time, and her father before her. Good news: it is established that a vote for a write-in candidate must be counted if the intent is clear. So someone drawing the three pictures on this page could be seen as voting for Murkowski, like so:

The French word for sea is MER + COW + SKI = Murkowski.

Anyway, I am voting today. I will vote for at least one non-Democrat. and by non-Democrat, I don’t mean voting for a Democrat on the Working Families line.

I will vote for my junior US Kirsten Gillibrand. I was going to anyway, but the bizarro Republican candidate for Governor Carl Paladino said some disparaging remarks about her recently, and that’s good enough for me. Nice profile of the senator in Vogue, of all places.

VOTE!! And if you choose not to, PLEASE don’t tell me about it, because THESE people are voting.

Author: Roger

I'm a librarian. I hear music, even when it's not being played. I used to work at a comic book store, and it still informs my life. I won once on JEOPARDY! - ditto.

10 thoughts on “Election Day predictions”

  1. Good luck with voting! I don’t know which is better a two party system like in your country or a ten or more party system with proportional representation like we have. Anyway I hope wise people will rule.
    It was certainly good that the USA sent representatives to Hiroshima to commemorate the fact that 65 years ago the first A-bomb was dropped.
    It saved our lives, but at a cost of many lives of innocent Japanese women, children and old men. War is hell, and it’s caused by hatred, disrespect and discrimination against all kind of people.

  2. I voted but I have no predictions. I hope my beloved state (NC) doesn’t break my heart as it has done in many elections. I don’t mean to be partisan because I’m not really partisan. Frankly for me most of the democrats are way too moderate. It blows my mind when I see politicians suggesting certain democrats are so liberal when they aren’t close to being liberal enough for me. I hate labels. Words like left and right, Democrat and Republican, liberal and conservative, have little meaning at this point. But it’s hard to avoid labels short of writing a dissertation and it’s time someone PULLS me off my soapbox.

  3. Carver – frankly, I agree w you about the moderate Dems, but I was trying not to write a particularly partisan piece.

  4. I can’t say the names mean a lot to me from my distant viewpoint, but the media here is taking great interest with tv and radio coverage through the night.

    There have also been regular reports from across the US and there is a marked difference in our definition of what constitutes the ‘centre ground’ either side of the Atlantic.

  5. In Canada, too, politics seem to focus more on what separates us rather than on how we can compromise to make society run better. Good luck on your elections. I hope the results will be positive for your country.

  6. Just wanted to let you know that I did vote. But, honestly, when it comes to assessing propositions through voter guides, etc., I feel I can never fully grasp all the ramifications of voting in a particular way. I fear voting one way, expecting certain results, and then finding out that the propositions were crafted in such a way that my vote will have contributed to circumstances the opposite of what I hoped for. I guess I have an innate suspicion and paranoia of political sleight of hand.

  7. One of the things I was thinking watching the US election returns coming in was that although New Zealand is a multi-party democracy with proportional representation, we also have two main parties. But the difference between our two main parties is negligible compared to the differences between the US’ two parties.

    I voted for Giannoulias. I was pleased, though, that at least my excellent Democratic US Representative was re-elected with 65.9% of the vote—including mine.

  8. What’s your take on the Republican landslide yesterday? It just seems clear that when states like Illinois go almost completely Red, people in the United States are pretty unhappy with his performance until now.

  9. Mr Rangel should spend the rest of his unnatural, greedy, graft-laden life behind bars. Gitmo has plenty of room. The “average Joe” citizen would be in jail a long time ago if he committed the same crimes as sticky-fingers Charlie. Blarney Frank has sticky fingers, too. If Rangel? Congress wants to really punish Charlie, place him in the same jail cell with Blarney. I can hear Charlie yelling “Yabba Dabba DOO”!

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