In the discussion of immigration in the United States, the Brookings Institution published an analysis of net migration outcomes. Unsurprisingly:
- There was a significant drop-off in entries to the United States in 2025 relative to 2024 and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures. We estimate that net migration was between –10,000 and –295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative.
- In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well
“The downward population pressure stemming from negative net migration has important implications for the macroeconomy. In recent years, growth in the U.S.-born working-age population has been weak, and nearly all growth in the labor force has stemmed from immigration flows. The 2022–24 immigration surge was accompanied by robust job growth, with immigrants both supplying labor and generating demand for goods and services.”
The CDC noted in 2024: “The percentage of older workers employed has grown. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment of workers aged 65 or older has grown by 117% within 20 years. Employment of individuals 75 years or older has increased by 117%.”
Weakening the economy
Brookings: “Conversely, the recent slowdown in population growth has affected the level of employment growth consistent with an unchanged unemployment rate, often called ‘breakeven employment growth.’ We estimate that, in the second half of 2025, breakeven employment growth of 20,000 to 50,000 jobs each month was consistent with immigration flows. That number could dip into negative territory over 2026. Reduced immigration also has modest dampening effects on GDP and will weaken consumer spending by an estimated $60–$110 billion combined over the two years. “
In other words, the severity of immigration limitations – and they are not even talking about the MANNER of the crackdowns – is detrimental to the US economy.
The frustration, however, is that there are no solid data. “Though some refugees were likely admitted in early January 2025, the current administration has all but suspended the refugee program, with an exception for an unknown number of white South Africans. Data on the number of refugees is no longer publicly available.”
Guesstimates
As a librarian, I sympathize with statisticians who must rely on estimates. “Our estimate of net migration of –295,000 to –10,000 for 2025 differs from some other prominent estimates. The most recent version of the CBO demographic estimates, released in January 2026, indicates a net migration of approximately 400,000 for 2025.
“Other estimates are much more negative than our own, notably those using Current Population Survey (CPS) data to examine the foreign-born population. For example, the CPS has been used by the Center for Immigration Studies and the Pew Research Center to estimate a decline in the foreign-born population of around 2 million.”
There’s other info, such as how “the reduction in consumer spending by immigrants also further dampens GDP growth.” The Council on Foreign Relations notes, “Most economists say that immigration is good for the U.S. economy because it helps grow the size of the labor force, boost tax revenue, and increase consumer demand. However, there is some debate about the effect of immigration on wages.”