ARA: the Presidents

undeniable

Kelly, that guy from western New York, asked several questions, two about the Presidents.

One scenario I had in mind when Biden was elected was that he would serve two years–essentially steward the country through the worst of COVID and get the economic recovery going–and then step down, making Harris President. Should he have done so? Would Harris have done better as an incumbent?

One thing I know about Joe Biden is that he is a traditionalist regarding the presidency. Barring extraordinary circumstances, such as severe illness, he would never serve two years and then resign. Only one president in our history resigned from office: Richard Nixon in 1974, less than two years after Joe became the US senator from Delaware.

Moreover, if he had announced too early that he would quit after two, any chance of his agenda being acted upon would have been almost impossible to achieve. I suppose he could have done it secretly and then announced it after the midterms of 2022.

However, completing a president’s agenda in the best situations takes time. There are negotiations to be had, and much of what he achieved was in the latter half of his term. I noticed that FOTUS felt entitled to do everything on Day One, but he didn’t even have his cabinet in place on January 21st.

Secondly, I don’t think he would have ceded the presidency to Kamala Harris in 2022. Many people, including me, thought she was a terrible candidate when she ran for president in 2020. Heck, her campaign didn’t even make it to the election year; she started it in 2019 and ended it in 2019.

HHH redux

Moreover, in 2022, she would have been burdened by immigration and inflation worse than in 2024. Conversely, the Biden support for Israel in the Gaza war harmed her greatly. It would have been like Hubert Humphrey running against LBJ’s Vietnam War in 1968; it would have been even more difficult for Kamala to separate herself from Joe.

She was a much better candidate than I anticipated when she ran in 2024. Still, many people hated the process of her becoming the Democratic nominee; even people I know IRL, who probably voted for her, were appalled by the manner in which she became the pick.

I have intimated before that it would have been a better choice for Joe to decide to be a one-term president much earlier. There have been willing, “successful” one-term presidents before. The most noteworthy in terms of his agenda was James Knox Polk (1845-1849), who managed to win the Mexican War and expand our manifest destiny. I’m not saying this is good, merely that he was triumphant at it.

His inner circle ultimately served him poorly by trying to manage his physical decline. As Dean Phillips suggested, Biden should have stepped down around July 2023. Then, there would have been a primary process that most Democrats would have embraced.

(BTW,  my candidate would have probably been Pete Buttigieg because he spoke so well to the rightwing news crowd, going on their shows regularly; he was like the “FOX whisperer.”)

All that said, I’m not sure that ANYONE could have beaten FOTUS unless the man were indicted shortly after January 2021. Jack Smith’s much-too-late report proves clearly that he was the felon we all knew he was. “But for [his] election and imminent return to the presidency, the office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial,” the report states.

AotD

On November 22, 2024, Senator John Fetterman told ABC This Week’s Jon Karl: “You have a singular political talent [in FOTUS]. It’s undeniable. …if you’re not afraid to say all of those things, or, and after you survived an assassination, you literally were shot in your head and had the presence of mind to respond, ‘fight, fight, fight.’

“I was driving home from Indiana County (PA) at nine o’clock, and there was a Trump superstore on the side of a road, nine o’clock on Friday night, and people are buying swag. And that really crystallized in, at the assassination [attempt]… the day or two later, you start seeing people wearing shirts with that iconic picture. And, you know, the energy and the anger and, it’s like, wow, I really thought — in fact, I thought that might be ball game.'”

So, FOTUS has mastered the Art of the Deal, in which January 6, 2021, was a stroll through the Capitol. His pardon of the J6 insurrectionists was the final nail in the gaslighting coffin.

“They’re eating their cats” is merely Orange hyperbole. Yet I read how he picks out the lies and errors of others. Joe LIED about not pardoning Hunter. He was wrong about the fact that the Afghan Taliban wouldn’t take over Afghanistan that quickly.

Part of the reason is that many Americans, especially men, preferred Ben Shapiro, “Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, YouTube, and X over the mainstream media,” where Biden and Harris largely operated.  

Perhaps it’s a function of what author Jianwei Xun, in his book about FOTUS and Musk, calls Hypnocracy, a “new form of social control… that… induces a permanent functional trance through algorithmic modulation of collective consciousness… In the era of post-truth and artificial intelligence, power no longer operates through repression but through the manipulation of reality perception.” 

When this question came in, my daughter and I watched the 2005 Charlie the Chocolate Factory movie with Johnny Depp. She suggested that the children that Willy Wonka selected were like FOTUS. Much of the American public was like the indulgent parents who capitulated to their noisy brats.

BHO

What WERE 45 and Obama saying to one another at President Carter’s funeral, anyway?!

“Donald, you know that I think you’re a dipwad. But you’re gonna be president again, much to my consternation. [FOTUS laughs]. So you’re in ‘the club.’ Let’s get together and have a rational conversation somewhere about why you shouldn’t undermine the Panama Canal treaty or blow up NATO by seizing  Greenland and threatening Canada. Hey, if these actions don’t happen, people will think all of this is bluster and that you’ve ‘grown’ into the presidency. This could help your historical reputation!”

Cognitive dissonance

MLK/djt

I’m experiencing a tremendous degree of cognitive dissonance. Today is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and it’s also the inauguration of someone who doesn’t seem to understand what MLK was about.

During the 2024 campaign, he supported a truly dreadful candidate for governor of North Carolina, Mark Robinson, a black man. 45/47 said that Robinson was Martin Luther King “on steroids.” The Tar Heel is a guy who left messages on a “porn site’s message boards more than a decade ago in which he referred to himself as a ‘black NAZI,” among other failings. Fortunately, he lost badly in a state that Orange won.

There were many online posts claiming that djt was never accused of being racist until he decided to run for president. Well, no. This AP story notes otherwise. Most of it is not new to anyone paying attention. 

“In 1973, for example, the Justice Department sued the real estate tycoon and his father for their alleged refusal to rent apartments in predominantly white buildings to Black tenants. Testimony showed that applications filed by Black apartment seekers were marked with a ‘C’ for ‘colored.’

“The lawsuit ended in a settlement in which the Trumps acknowledged they “failed and neglected” to comply with the Fair Housing Act, though they were never required to explicitly acknowledge discrimination had occurred.

“In 1989, Trump infamously took out full page newspaper ads calling for New York state to reinstate the death penalty as five Black and Latino teenagers were set to stand trial for beating and raping a white woman in Central Park.” And he doubled down on this long after they were exonerated, so they sued him in 2024 for defamation. 

HUD

djt includes many of his former rivals in his cabinet and his inner circle, including people of color. He named Doctor Ben Carson the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development; even though Carson had no experience in this area, it was convenient for him.

“Carson has allowed his family members to be involved in the operations of the department in ways that could benefit them. In particular, Carson’s son, Ben Carson Jr., and his daughter-in-law, Merlynn Carson, appear to have exercised an unusual amount of influence over certain government businesses. Emails uncovered by American Oversight and analyzed by news outlets reveal that both Carson Jr. and Merlynn Carson may have attempted to use their influence at HUD to advance their own private interests.” This shows that when he hires grifters, he doesn’t discriminate.  

Black voters

Yet more black people voted for djt than ever before. Kamala “Harris appears to have won 80 percent of the Black vote, according to an exit poll by The Associated Press. But that’s a drop of 10 percentage points compared with 2020, when the current president, Joe Biden, won nine of 10 Black votes.

“The beneficiary? Trump, who won 20 percent of the Black vote this time, according to the exit poll. He had won 13 percent of the community’s vote in 2020 and 8 percent in 2016 — which in itself was the highest level of support by Black voters for any Republican since George W Bush in 2000…”

“Why? Today’s Black voters operate a bit more independently from previous generations, especially young Black voters, analysts say.

“Historically, the Democratic Party’s legacy with the civil rights movement is what kept it popular with Black voters. However, younger Black voters do not have those same civil rights legacy attachments…

“‘…this rising percentage of Black voters [is] taking a different look at the Republican Party in general and are exploring some curiosities with Trump despite his racial baggage.’”

I have no great insight here. The 47th president has the magic elixir that allows him to do things that I, as an old poli sci major, have never seen anyone else pull off. I hope that the country survives.

I will lean into the fact that, in the tradition of the MLK holiday, we act locally to make our country a better place despite what might happen at the national level. This isn’t easy, I know, but it is probably necessary. Here’s a Letter from a Birmingham Jail by MLK in 1963.

January rambling: Lebensraum

Monroe Doctrine

We’ll get to Lebensraum in a bit.

Global temperatures in 2024 shattered records, soaring past 1.5°C as extreme weather devastated millions. 26 Climate-Fueled Extreme Weather Events Killed at Least 3,700 People. 

Big Agriculture Is Leading Us Into the Bird Flu Abyss: The federal government’s deference to agriculture industry interests has put the US at risk of a public health crisis.

How The Polio Vaccine Destroyed Trust In Healthcare (a bit of a misleading title, but not entirely wrong)

Bernie Sanders’ Prescription to ‘Make America Healthy Again’: “Our real problem is not so much a healthcare crisis as it is a political and economic one.”

A Disastrous Development in Our Response to Disasters

Veterans rights and discrimination: a guide

New VIP+ Special Report: Generative AI: Deepfakes & Digital Replicas

Aaron Brown, CNN Anchor During the Sept. 11 Attacks, Dies at 76

Ask Arthur 2024: Racism and change; Miscellany

The art of monotasking: “Being busy” doesn’t necessarily mean we’re doing what matters. Focusing your attention on only one task at a time is the secret to performing tasks correctly.

The Best Reviewed Broadway Shows of 2024

A book on Albany’s railroad history? Yes, please…

Embiggen – defined earlier than the Simpsons

“Explain a Movie Plot Badly” — A Fun Party Game

What era?

A real  meditation on American greatness

When people would talk about MAGA, liberals wanted to know which era was the “great” one they wanted to go back to. Many thought they were talking about the 1950s before integration. Or the 1920s before the Great Depression and FDR regulations. Maybe they meant the 1880s and 90s during the Gilded Age.

I would have picked any of those. But I did not have on my bingo card the 1820s. We’re going back to the Monroe Doctrine era. The Daily Signal, a right-wing online publication, favorably suggested the same. The piece by Jarrett Stepman ends: “If Trump does revive some form of the Monroe Doctrine, it could represent a much-needed return to tradition and to a stronger foundation for U.S. security in an increasingly dangerous world.”

Suddenly, the January 7 press conference made sense. djt said he’d be  renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”

“The once and future president also doubled down on his aims to acquire Greenland, retake control of the Panama Canal, and put pressure on Canada to change its trade relations with the United States” which he voiced before Christmas.

Here’s former Trump national security adviser Robert O’Brien on Fox News:

It’s strategically very important to the Arctic which is going to be the critical battleground of the future because as the climate gets warmer, the Arctic is going to be a pathway that maybe cuts down on the usage of the Panama Canal.

Or MAYBE we’re going to become 1930s Germany. Lebensraum is “the policy of Nazi Germany that involved expanding German territories to the east to provide land and material resources for the German people while driving out Jewish and Slavic people.”

The Corporate Giants Bankrolling the Inauguration: PAY to play.

The President Can Self-Pardon, but It Would Be an Impeachable Offense (CATO Institute, Dec 2020) 

MUSIC

Bemba Colorá-Sheila E. ft. Gloria Estefan on Jimmy Kimmel; I see Rebecca Jade!

Coronation Procession by Ruth Gipps

You Get What You Give – New Radicals

Love In Action  – Utopia

Rocket 88 – Jackie Brenston & His Delta Cats

Coverville 1516 and 1517: The 2024 Coverville Countdown

Down By The Riverside – Elvis Presley · Carl Perkins · Jerry Lee Lewis · Johnny Cash. I bought this CD after I saw the Million Dollar Quartet musical

The theme from the 1967 Spider-Man cartoon show – Midtown

Tomorrow – Julie Benko and Cantor Azi Schwartz

Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 21: The final notes – all of the US pop #1s

Peter Yarrow Dies at 86. Leaving On A Jet Plane – Peter, Paul, and Mary 

Sam Moore, who died at age 89, was more than a Soul Man – he was one of the 20th century’s great live performers. When Something Is Wrong With My Baby – Sam And Dave.

US “Bregret” already?

The Indivisible:

As early as late November, I was reading about some voters for the Republican candidate for President feeling regret about their vote. It’s similar to how many people in the United Kingdom felt after the Brexit vote in 2016; they had Bregret.

djt has promised huge tariffs on goods from China. Somehow, Americans didn’t understand that that would likely result in retaliatory tariffs on American goods. Now, he’s suggesting a tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, our largest trading partners, even though we are in a USMCA (NAFTA successor)  agreement that would preclude that from taking place until 2026. 

This is presumably to”teach them a lesson” about US border security. The first rule of tariff wars is that no one wins a tariff war.  If they respond in kind, which Mexico has already promised, this will increase the pain in Americans’ wallets. 

Some contractors and farmers who supported him have talked about how they don’t know what they’re going to do if half of their workers are deported.

12 People Who Had Literally No Idea What Their Trump Vote Meant.

We don’t need no education

Hey, if the federal Department of Education is eliminated – a bill to do so has already been introduced – many of its services will also disappear. That’s the subtext of this link, which notes that Oklahoma has nevertheless found money to buy Bibles, optimally for every classroom.

Now, he says he can’t promise he’ll be able to lower grocery prices. An article in WaPo, behind a paywall, is titled, “After backing Trump, low-income voters hope he doesn’t slash their benefits.” It begins:

NEW CASTLE, Pennsylvania — Lori Mosura goes to the grocery store on a bicycle because she can’t afford to fix her Ford F-150 truck.

“The single mother and her 17-year-old son live in an apartment that is so small she sleeps in the dining room. They receive $1,200 each month in food stamps and Social Security benefits but still come up short. Mosura said she often must decide whether to buy milk or toilet paper.”

Reaganomics redux

Here’s a fun fact from Heather Cox Richardson: “Laura Mannweiler of U.S. News and World Report estimated the worth of Trump’s current roster of appointees to be at least $344.4 billion, more than the gross domestic product of 169 countries. That number does not include Scott Bessent, whose net worth is hard to find. In comparison, Mannweiler notes, the total net worth of the officials in Biden’s Cabinet was about $118 million. 

“The incoming administration will advance a different economic vision. Instead of trying to expand the economy through investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [as the Biden administration did], his team has emphasized cutting taxes for the wealthy and corporations and slashing regulations. The argument behind this approach to the economy is that concentrating wealth in the hands of investors will spur more investment while creating an environment that’s ‘friendly’ to business will create jobs.”It’s classic Reaganomics trickle-down, crony capitalism at its finest.
“Don’t test us.”
After Barack Obama was elected in 2008 and inaugurated in 2009, with solid majorities in the popular and Electoral College votes, Republicans served as the “loyal opposition.” This concept “indicates that the non-governing parties may oppose the actions of the sitting [government] while remaining loyal to the formal source(s) of the government’s power, such as the… constitution.”

I jest. The Tea Party movement simmered up in 2009, clearly a disloyal opposition designed to thwart his efforts at every turn. That he got anything done, especially after his first two years, was pretty miraculous.

Yet the message from this incoming administration and their allies is that the Democrats just should shut up, get out of the way, and let Orange be Orange. Senator Tom Cotton sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin:  “You issued a message to the department the day after the election commenting that the military will follow ‘lawful orders’ from the new president—a thinly veiled and baseless insinuation that [djt] will issue unlawful orders.” Baseless? Eh. Yet, Pete Hegseth, the choice to head Defense, is a train wreck.

Tom Homan, the incoming border czar, “plans to bring harsh consequences to any sanctuary city leader who threatens to hinder efforts by immigration authorities from mass-deporting illegal aliens.”

djt’s sometimes wacky Cabinet nominees shouldn’t need to be confirmed by the Senate! His words should be sufficient for the process. His media censorship arsenal is growing.

Resistance

So what is the response? The Union of Concerned Scientists notes: “We—and our supporters across the country—have a vital role to play in defending the progress we’ve made at the federal level, advancing our goals at the state level, and exposing and pushing back against the abuses that are likely to come. We’re clear about the threats we face, but we must move forward with hope and determination.”  A key tenet is “Protecting democracy, state-by-state.” California is on board.

The Indivisible Guide: A Practical Guide to Democracy on the Brink is encouraging. It acknowledges the need to grieve for a while. I can’t live in despair for the next two or four years, and trust me, it would be very easy for me to do so.   I’m holding onto the frankly uncomfortable thought that there will be a backlash to higher prices and other bad outcomes.

I know that some people are not there yet. Heck. I may not be there myself, but I pride myself on hoping I’ll get there eventually because the alternative is too dismal. There needs to be a response to what Cornel West called “American gangsterism crystallized, honest about itself, unashamed and bold.”

‘A Day of Love’: The president-elect and his allies have spent four years reinventing the Capitol attack — spreading conspiracy theories and weaving a tale of martyrdom for their ultimate political gain.

Joe pardoned Hunter and I don’t care

Kash Patel at the FBI?

Joe pardoned Hunter, and I don’t care.

Gavin Newsom: “With everything the president and his family have been through, I completely understand the instinct to protect Hunter. But I took the president at his word. So, by definition, I’m disappointed and can’t support the decision.”

A Republican senator said that he understood why Joe executed the pardon and admitted that he would likely pardon his own child in similar circumstances but that the problem is that Joe lied. 

The editorial in my local newspaper, the Albany Times Union, suggested that the pardon has ” provided a measure of bipartisan cover for [djt] to use his pardon power to exonerate anyone in his immediate sphere – family, friends, political donors, alleged co-conspirators  – on the stated basis that their investigation or prosecution was ‘political persecution’ or the more current ‘lawfare,'” as though they hadn’t 45 hadn’t already done that. This is disingenuous. 

On his way out of office in 2021, djt “displayed both nepotism and vengeance. Amid dozens of dubious (and worse) acts of clemency in those final days, he pardoned his son-in-law Jared Kushner’s father, Charles Kushner, who had been convicted of 18 counts of illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion, and witness tampering. (Last week, Mr. Trump announced he plans to nominate Mr. Kushner as ambassador to France.)”

The other guy

Joe’s predecessor and successor posted on social media that the pardon was  “Such an abuse and miscarriage of Justice!” He mentioned the rioters from Jan. 6, 2021, some of whom he has suggested could be pardoned when he takes office. This is what he had said long before Joe’s pardon of Hunter.

Cory Doctorow wrote, in a different context: “Remember the 2016 debate where [Hillary] Clinton accused Trump of cheating on his taxes, and he admitted to it, saying, ‘That makes me smart’? Trumpism is the movement of ‘that makes me smart’ life, where if you get scammed, that’s your own damned fault. Sorry, loser, you lost.”

The comparison between Joe’s “sin” and the wealth of distortions told by 45 is not even in the same ballpark. According to the Washington Post, during 45’s four-year term, his false or misleading claims totaled 30,573.

This time around, his insistence that he knew nothing about Project 2025 and then appointed people who wrote the document is classic. He… what is the word I’m looking for? Oh, yeah… lied. (And polling suggests that 1) his voters know he’s lying, but 2) they either don’t mind or actively appreciate it, which hurts my head.)

Retribution

But sometimes, he does tell the truth. His nominee to head the FBI, Kash Patel, is being very open about how he’ll persecute MAGA’s enemies. A shrewd observer of autocracy explains how far he’ll be able to get—and why there’s cause for serious worry.

From ABC News This Week for 1 Dec 2024:

KASH PATEL, DONALD TRUMP’S NOMINEE FOR FBI DIRECTOR: I am going to go on a government gangster’s manhunt in Washington, D.C., for our great president. Who’s coming with me?

JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS: The president-elect names Kash Patel to serve as FBI director. A loyalist who said Trump’s political opponents should be very afraid. And may be the toughest confirmation battle yet.

If there was any doubt that President-elect Donald Trump intends to follow through with his promises of radical change and retribution, both here at home and abroad, those doubts have been erased… 

Unqualified

“Patel is so controversial that when President Trump talked about making him the deputy FBI director in 2020, then-Attorney General Bill Barr said it would happen, quote, ‘over my dead body,’ according to his memoir, adding, quote, ‘Patel had virtually no experience that would qualify him to serve at the highest level of the world’s preeminent law enforcement agency. The very idea of moving Patel into a role like this showed a shocking detachment from reality.’”

[h/t Paul Rapp] “Ron Filipkowski of MeidasTouch notes that Biden’s pardon came after [djt’s announcement of Patel]… Filipkowski studies right-wing media and points out that Patel’s many appearances there suggest he is obsessed with Hunter Biden, especially the story of his laptop, which Patel insists shows that Hunter and Joe Biden engaged in crimes with Ukraine and China.
“As legal commentator Asha Rangappa noted: ‘People criticizing the Hunter Biden pardon need to recognize: For the 1st time, the FBI and Justice Department could literally fabricate evidence, or collaborate with a foreign government to ‘find’ evidence of a ‘crime,’ with zero accountability. That’s why the pardon goes back to 2014.'”
Context
Having watched Joe Biden for half a century, I don’t think he intended to lie at all. When he made his initial comment that he wouldn’t pardon Hunter, it was with the thought that he would be President and wouldn’t take action to subvert his own Justice Department. Similarly, when Kamala Harris took over as the Democratic nominee, he didn’t worry about retribution from the Department of Justice.
But with Kash Patel potentially heading the FBI, all bets were off. Moreover, I think that Jill Biden had an outsized hand in this. When asked about how she felt about the pardon at a Christmas event, she said, “Of course, I wanted a pardon for my son.” 
More pardons!

I’m sure there’ll be many more pardons in the coming weeks. One group he should pardon is most, if not all, of the folks on this list of Patel “enemies,” including  Lloyd Austin, Hillary Clinton, James Comey, Stephanie Grisham, Kamala Harris,  Gina Haspel, Fiona Hill, Eric Holder, Cassidy Hutchinson, Lisa Monaco, Robert Mueller, Jake Sullivan,  Alexander Vindman, Christopher Wray, and Sally Yates.

Do you know who else is on the list? Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. Can Joe Biden pardon himself? This is an interesting question. The former /next guy has indicated that he might pardon himself, so why the heck not?

Satirist Andy Borowitz notes that JRB would give “his dog Commander a sweeping pardon in exchange for biting South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.”

Ramblin' with Roger
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