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Foolishness over Our Food Supply

The results show that the dominant causes of food price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion.

There’s an appeal for CARE’s 2011 World Hunger Campaign going on – tax-deductible at least in the US. And I find it absurd.

Not that they are making the appeal, but that they HAVE to. How is it that there is a food crisis?

Part of it is elucidated in a study by the New England Complex Systems Institute entitled The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion [PDF].

From the abstract:
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, while an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion.

In other words, greed, and insanity.

Read also The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010: Addressing Food Insecurity in Protracted Crises [PDF] from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization: “FAO estimates that a total of 925 million people are undernourished in 2010 compared with 1.023 billion in 2009. Most of the decrease was in Asia, with 80 million fewer hungry, but progress was also made in sub-Saharan Africa, where 12 million fewer people are going hungry. However, the number of hungry people is higher in 2010 than before the food and economic crises of 2008–09.”

There are also, increasingly, water shortages. Frankly, those TV ads such as One Million New American Jobs: The Benefits of Increased Access to Domestic Oil & Gas, touting the Canadian tar sands oil that would have been too dirty for the US government to buy, under legislation signed by George W. Bush, make me even more nervous. Allegedly cheaper oil, but at what cost to the water supply?

As Blog Action notes:
“Food is something that we all share in common but is distinct to each of our cultures. The way we produce, distribute and consume food is crucial to our shared future, and the unhealthy imbalance of food scarcity in developing world and food over-abundance in the developed world is unsustainable for us all.”

Take the quiz.

Guano crazy candidates QUESTION

Only recently have I realized that Herman Cain is also guano crazy.

For seven years out of eight years (2002-2007, 2009), we had at least one live bat in our house. The problem seems to finally be solved by roof insulation and fixing some gaps between the roof and the main house structure. One of the telltale signs you have a bat, even if you don’t see it: guano, which means bat poop.

I was talking about some of the candidates for President with my wife, and I was divvying them up between those with whom I merely oppose politically and those who I called “guano crazy”. I don’t know if I had made up that phraseology, or stole it from someone unconsciously, but I’ve become rather fond of it.

The question: among those who have announced that they are running, which candidates do you consider guano crazy? Democracy for America is running a poll, asking, among the Republicans: Who do you think would make the worst President? When I took the poll a few days ago, Rick Perry had a clear plurality of the votes cast, with over 40% of the vote, followed by Michelle Bachmann (c. 25%), Mitt Romney, and Herman Cain.

I would consider Perry to be guano crazy. His disastrous debates, when he decides to be too clever, but it backfires, as he mangles his narrative badly.

Michelle Bachmann is quite guano crazy as well, confusing both her American geographic history (Concord, NH is not THE Concord of Lexington and Concord, MA), but her rock and roll history (celebrating Elvis’ birthday on Elvis’ death day).

Only recently have I realized that Herman Cain is also guano crazy if he believes that it’s primarily the unemployed’s fault that they are without jobs. Santorum (don’t Google that word!) is guano, crazily trying to get Google to change its algorithms to keep him from being embarrassed, a situation he largely brought on himself through his bigotry.

Whereas, Huntsman, Romney, Buddy Roemer (who doesn’t even get to appear in the debates), I merely tend to disagree with. Gingrich checks the weather and takes whatever position he believes will be most popular; a snake. Ron Paul, I totally agree with about 10% of the time, but then he keeps talking.

Keep in mind that one of the guanos could be the next Vice-President if he or she doesn’t get the Prez nod. And don’t underestimate the ABR (Anyone But Romney) factor, which might make one of them the standard-bearer for the party in November 2012.

The Olin International Family Reunion

After a delicious lunch, the kids got to do face painting, hair coloring and horseback riding.

For over 75 years, various branches of my mother-in-law’s family have gotten together for family reunions. But at some point, the Olin Family Society, founded in 1992, decided to have an international reunion every five years. In 1996, it was in Fargo, ND; in 2001, in Binghamton, NY, which we attended; and in 2006, in Pasco, WA, which we did not attend, because we thought taking a two-year-old who didn’t travel well on a transcontinental flight as her first airline experience was a lousy idea for all concerned.

The Olins trace their lineage back to the late 17th century, when John Olin, a 14-year old cabin boy who was an indentured servant, forced into service on the British ship Man-O-War, jumped off the boat heading for Boston harbor. He swam ashore, stealthily traveled inland for about a week, and ended up in the care of the Narragansett Indians for eight years. He became an indentured servant to Samuel Gorton until 1700 when he became a free man. John married Susannah Spencer on October 4, 1708. She was believed to be an ancestor of Diana Spencer, who married Prince Charles of England, and had a couple of sons. John and Susannah had four known children, Joseph, John, Henry, and Eleanor.

The drive from Toronto to Peterborough, once we got out of Toronto traffic, was uneventful. Stayed at a functional but unremarkable Best Western; 2nd floor again, no elevator. We attended the ice cream social Friday night at the church where the event was held, just past the Quaker Oats plant; a decent number of folks turned out, but Saturday was the main event.

Someone at the reunion made nametags for everyone who had preregistered that listed, not only the Olin family member but also their spouse, all the generations back to John and Susannah. My wife, and therefore my daughter, are in the John-Joseph-Joseph-Reuben-John-Earl-Orva Lee-George Omar line. George married Leona G. Ruland, and they had 8 children (all of whom were still alive six years ago, though a few have passed since), the sixth of whom was my mother-in-law. So my wife’s name tag and mine showed 10 generations, and my daughter’s, 11.

A meeting was held in the morning, during which the daughter and I played Uno, with info of genealogical finds. After a delicious lunch, the kids got to do face painting, hair coloring, and horseback riding. I too got my hair sprayed, and I’m sure there’s photographic proof somewhere, but not here.

There was an auction in the afternoon, during which I purchased the 1893 tome cited above, then a great dinner, with lots of homemade pies for dessert. Then Sunday morning, a great brunch before people took off on the road, in our case, back to the USA.

Lots of great people at this event.

Paul Simon: “How terribly strange to be 70”

On March 1, 2007, Simon made headlines again when he was announced as the first recipient of the recently-created Gershwin Prize for Popular Song.

I don’t think I can fully explain how INTEGRAL Paul Simon has been in my life, but I’ll try. In fact, I’ll try twice: once, now, for the albums related to his solo career, and again on November 5, for the earlier stuff with Art Garfunkel; November 5, Artie turns 70 as well.

Paul Simon (1972) – Here’s a video of a young woman playing Duncan at a Paul Simon concert; there’s a song I once could relate to.

There Goes Rhymin’ Simon (1973) – for a time, my favorite Paul Simon/S&G album.
Kodachrome – I used it. Quite a bit, in the day.
One Man’s Ceiling Is Another Man’s Floor – just a few months ago, I noted that some tax break for small struggling businesses was a good thing. Someone took great exception to this. I replied, “Well, as Paul Simon would say, ‘One Man’s Ceiling Is Another Man’s Floor'”. I used to cite it a LOT.

Still Crazy After All These Years (1975) – like Paul, a breakup album for me, big time. I watched the Grammys when, in “Simon’s acceptance speech for the Album of the Year award…he jokingly thanked Stevie Wonder, who had won the award the two previous years…for not releasing an album that year.” I LOL. Probably my favorite album.
I Do It for Your Love – ‘the orange [carpet] bled the blue”; not literally, but a good reflection of an apartment I once shared.
50 Ways to Leave Your Lover – listened to grand debates about whether this song was namechecking comic book icons JACK Kirby, STAN LEE, and ROY Thomas. And if so, who the heck was Gus?
Have a Good Time – I used to play this song every March 8: “Yesterday eve was my birthday…”

Paul Simon appeared in my favorite movie, Annie Hall (1977).
He put out the first of two many greatest hits albums (1977) which featured Slip Slidin’ Away. “You know the nearer your destination…”

After One Trick Pony (1980 movie and soundtrack), featuring Late in the Evening…

Hearts and Bones (1983) – this album sold not at all well. “The album was originally intended to be a Simon & Garfunkel reunion album called Think Too Much, following their Central Park reunion concert in 1981, and the world tour of 1982 – 1983… However, creative tensions appeared between the duo during the sessions…This led to the duo abandoning the project altogether; Simon wiped Garfunkel’s vocals from the completed tracks and reworked the songs for a solo album.” And many people in my circle of friends were LIVID about this, that he didn’t have the right to wipe off Art’s vocals. I defended Paul, but I was clearly in the minority.

It was generally believed that Paul Simon’s commercial appeal as a musician was about over, even by Paul Simon. He did appear on We Are the World single (1985).

But then, Graceland (1986), which was so beloved by the girlfriend at the time, it was wearying. Still, a great album, with Diamonds on the Soles of Her Shoes, You Can Call Me Al, and Homeless.

On The Rhythm of the Saints (1990) tour, I saw Paul Simon for the one and only time, in the Knickerbocker Arena in Albany in March 1991 in the nosebleed seats. And the percussion on The Obvious Child was STILL too loud. (The show was similar to the Central Park show in August of that year.) The girlfriend and I broke up very shortly after this show. Guess I wasn’t “Born at the Right Time.”

I just never warmed up to Songs from The Capeman (1997). That said, I should note that the killer wanted to go to college at my alma mater, New Paltz.

You’re the One (2000) was more to my liking, though there’s no single song that stood out for me.

Surprise (2006) was well-promoted and had songs that moved me. It included the song about narrow-mindedness, How Can You Live in the Northeast?; the unfortunately appropriate Wartime Prayers, and Father and Daughter. A different mix of the latter song appeared way back in the children’s film The Wild Thornberrys Movie (2002). I took great exception to the last line in the chorus: “There could never be a father who loved his daughter more than I love you.” Says YOU, Paul Simon! Of course, at the time it was first released, I didn’t HAVE a daughter, but still…

So Beautiful or So What (2011) – Amazingly still relevant. The Afterlife is a funny song about death.

Here’s what I ended up picking as my Top 10 Paul Simon solo cuts. Except for the top 2, it’s pretty fluid. Any one of about 15 songs, most mentioned here, could have been on the list. (All songs linked to recordings.)

10. Mother And Child Reunion (from the eponymous album) – I love the story how Paul wrote this after seeing it on Chinese restaurant menu; it’s a dish with chicken and egg.
9. Something So Right (There Goes Rhymin’ Simon) – this feeds right into my general pessimism, and surprise.
When something goes wrong, I’m the first to admit it
I’m the first to admit it
But the last one to know when something goes right
Well it’s likely to lose me
It’s apt to confuse me; It’s such an unusual sight
8. Getting Ready for Christmas Day (So Beautiful or So What) – I listened to this single, released in November 2010. Paul doing something new for him, sampling, in this case of a 1941 sermon by the Rev. J.M. Gates, interestingly from the year he was born.
7. The Late Great Johnny Ace (Hearts and Bones) – this is a song about a 1950s singer who died, but also about the death of John Lennon. The Philip Glass ending I always found haunting.
6. American Tune (There Goes Rhymin’ Simon) – the tune is quite similar to the JS Bach hymn O Sacred Head, Now Wounded, and it has a wounded lyric.
Many’s the time I’ve been mistaken, And many times confused
And I’ve often felt forsaken, And certainly misused.
But it’s all right, it’s all right, I’m just weary to my bones
5. Gone at Last (Still Crazy After All These Years) – at some point in the 1970s, I heard the Jessy Dixon Singers perform this sans Simon and the late Phoebe Snow, and it was still great.
4. Graceland (Graceland) – a wonderful story-song traveling with his “child from my first marriage” and a great guitar line.
3. Still Crazy After All These Years (Still Crazy After All These Years) – the first line was literally true, eventually: “I met my old lover on the street last night. She seemed so glad to see me, I just smiled.”
2. The Boy In The Bubble (Graceland) – The first song on the ‘Graceland’ album, and I was so obsessed with the intro of it, that sometimes I’d play it again. An extended version of this was “released on vinyl clocking in at 6:13, including a heavier focus on rhythms between the verses.” My friend Rocco owned it, and my local record store promised to order it for me, but they were unable to restock it. Thanks, YouTube.
1. Loves Me Like a Rock (There Goes Rhymin’ Simon) – growing up to be President. AND the Dixie Hummingbirds on vocals.

“On March 1, 2007, Simon made headlines again when he was announced as the first recipient of the recently-created Gershwin Prize for Popular Song. The Prize, created by the Library of Congress, was awarded to Simon during a Concert Gala featuring his music at the Warner Theatre in Washington, D.C., on the evening of May 23. The event was nationally broadcast on PBS on the evening of June 27, 2007” and of course, I watched. Here’s Love Me Like a Rock, featuring Stevie Wonder.

Paul Simon at the 9/11 anniversary ceremony in 2011, performing The Sound of Silence.

The Jobs reaction

While I don’t feel the emotional pull of Jobs’ passing that I have had with other public figures, I think there was an awful lot of unnecessary snark targeted at Apple employees and fans who wept as though their father had died. For some, especially the former group, he probably WAS like a father figure.

I was fascinated, at some oddly arm’s-length manner, about the death of Steve Jobs. Genius, no doubt; visionary, for certain. And, though I never purchased an Apple product – no MacIntosh, no iPod, no iPad, I recognize the impact Apple’s design had on PCs, and just about everything else. I have also seen all but two of the Pixar films.

I came across this article, “arguing against a Jobs hagiography.” I LOVE the word hagiography; it’s almost never used in the literal sense – biography of a saint – but rather to inbue characteristics on the dead that are overblown or inaccurate, usually with an admonition not to do so.

Interesting that the post-Jobs world was apparent even before the announcement of his death. When the new iPhone 4S was released last week, speculation was high “whether Apple CEO Tim Cook can keep Apple going like Steve Jobs did remains an open question. Industry analysts who closely study the company’s every move are somewhat mixed. Apple’s iPhone event on Tuesday, said some, revealed a lackluster show from Cook. Jobs was legendary for splashy product launches shrouded in secrecy and rehearsed to perfection.”

And of course, Cook can’t. It’s like being the new coach of a very successful sports team; he’ll always be compared with his predecessor, and invariably won’t do quite as well. I feel for Tim Cook; he has the great misfortune of not being Steve Jobs.

Here are some items that caught my interest:
Steve Jobs’ Playboy interview (1985)
Steve Jobs’ government legacy: Citizen-centric computing; Jobs’ ability to craft tools for intensely personal computing helped
spark direct citizen-to-government computing.
Steve Jobs and His Magical Business Decisions, even as his failures are noted.
The Life of Steve Jobs
A TV commercial never shown in this form
My favorite Steve Jobs parody
Tributes from:
About.com
Spatula Forum
Shooting Parrots
Arthur at AmeriNZ, whose podcast I listen to on iTunes
MAD magazine
PARADE magazine (quotes)
The Onion: The Last American Who Knew What The F@#$ He Was Doing Dies
Jon Stewart, whose commented that, since he died too young, we hadn’t “used up” his creativity yet; at some level, I understood that.